Posted by Steve Wittich on Friday, September 16th 2022
A sticker Alternate Firestone Firehawk Racing Tire (red) is ready to be passed over the wall during a pit stop. The long-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES partner sponsors the Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award to honor the pit crew that is the fastest during the season (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
By Steve Wittich
The five-way battle for the Astor Cup and two-way fight for Rookie of The Year grabbed most of the attention during the Firestone Grand Prix Of Monterey weekend; at the same time, the struggle for an under-the-radar but uber-important award was also coming down to the wire.
NTT INDYCAR SERIES partner Firestone generously offers a $150,000 prize split between the three crews that spend the least time on pit road during the season. The crew that spends the least time on pit road wins $75,000, while the next pair of fastest crews receive $50,000 and $25,000.
After the Grand Prix of Portland, Scott McLaughlin’s No. 3 Team Penske crew held a slim eight-point lead over a charging No. 12 Team Penske group and their driver Will Power.
Also with an outside chance was the No. 9 Chip Ganassi Racing crew and Scott Dixon, who had been the quickest on pit road at four events headed to the finale.
On Sunday, Power and the No. 12 crew, which includes Trevor Lacasse (crew chief and outside front), Trey Williams (inside front), Adam Janus (outside rear), Doug Snyder (inside rear), Blaine Hardy (air jack), Eric Crabtree (fueler) and Andy Greer (tear off) got the job done, spending the least time on pit road for the third straight race and fourth time in 2022.
“They’ve been solid all season,” said Power when TSO asked him about the No. 12 group giving him confidence going into the finale. “(Trevor) is a great crew chief, and it’s just a really positive group on the car. I’ve been fortunate to have these guys; we are a tight-knit group.
“They’ve been super consistent. The outside rear guy (Adam Janus) is in his first year, and he’s been pretty methodical about the way he does stuff and slowly picking up his pace. I tell them you don’t need to do anything special, just get us out. Do what you know.”
Power is the first Indy car champion in the last 25 years to take home the crown with only one win, making the little things like pit stops and the positions that can be gained a crucial part of the title. Power finished 29 spots ahead of where he qualified and won the championship by only 16 points. You do the math on that.
Final Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award standings (note that the Indianapolis 500 is not included)
RANK
CREW
POINTS
1
No. 12 – Team Penske
544
2
No. 3 – Team Penske
522
3
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
487
4
No. 2 – Team Penske
456
5
No. 10 – Chip Ganassi Racing
426
6
No. 21 – Ed Carpenter Racing
338
7
No. 5 – Arrow McLaren SP
335
8
No. 8 – Chip Ganassi Racing
324
9
No. 26 – Andretti Autosport w/ Curb-Agajanian
309
10
No. 15 – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
306
11
No. 60 – Meyer Shank Racing
304
12
No. 28 – Andretti Autosport
279
13
No. 7 Arrow McLaren SP
277
14
No. 30 – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
243
15
No. 29 – Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport
236
16
No. 51- Dale Coyne Racing w/RWR
231
17
No. 27 – Andretti Autosport
231
18
No. 45 – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
227
19
No. 06 – Meyer Shank Racing
212
20
No. 48 – Chip Ganassi Racing
203
21
No. 20 – Ed Carpenter Racing
192
22
No. 77 – Juncos Hollinger Racing
181
23
No. 18 – Dale Coyne Racing with HMD
181
24
No. 4 – A.J. Foyt Racing
129
25
No. 14 – A.J. Foyt Racing
125
26
No. 11 – A.J. Foyt Racing
78
27
No. 33 – Ed Carpenter Racing
38
28
No. 06 – Arrow McLaren SP
18
After winning his second championship, Power singled out crew chief Lacasse, who started his Team Penske career as a mechanic on the Aussie’s car in 2010, as a positive force during the 2022 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season.
“Yeah, I’ve had a few different crew chiefs, but I would say that he is the most positive, lighthearted guy I’ve had and very nurturing just with the guys,” said Power about Lacasse after the final race of the season. “I think everyone is happy on the crew.
Trevor Lacasse (in grey) gets drenched after leading the No. 12 crew to the Astor Cup and the Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award title during the 2022 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
“I’ve had crew chiefs that were really tough on the guys. They demand everyone to really do their job properly. But Trev is just — he’s a great guy, a great human, and very good at his job, and he keeps everyone calm, including me. He just says, just do what you do, man; nothing special. I’ve been saying that, too, on the radio. We come in for a stop, nothing special, boys, just do what you know.”
Power’s crew was one of eight that was the quickest during a race, winning that title at the Iowa Speedway, World Wide Technology Raceway At Gateway, Portland International Raceway, and WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. Scott Dixon’s No. 9 Chip Ganassi Racing crew also topped the competition four times.
A hearty great job goes out to the No. 21 crew of Ed Carpenter Racing, who was one of only three crews to best Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing with the least time spent on pit road at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway was good to other crews as well, with the No. 7 crew of Felix Rosenqvist the quickest group at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, helping propel the Swede to a fourth-place finish in the Indianapolis 500. Also, the No. 26 – Andretti Autosport w/ Curb-Agajanian spent the least time on pit road during Colton Herta’s GMR Grand Prix victory.
The No. 21 Ed Carpenter Racing / Bitcoin Racing Team under the watchful eye of the crew at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. They spent the least time on pit road during the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
VeeKay’s crew, led by Jeff Frederick, ended the season in sixth place, the best non-Penske or Ganassi crew.
Side note: Rinus VeeKay was sporting a bushy mustache at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in honor of the character Rooster from Top Gun: Maverick. The Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio was VeeKay and his crews best performance of the year, maybe the mustache needs to come back.
Fastest driver and crew at each 2022 NTT INDYCAR SERIES race this year
EVENT
BEST DRIVER/CREW
Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg
No. 3 – Team Penske
XPEL 375
No. 2 – Team Penske
Acura Grand Prix Of Long Beach
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama
No. 3 – Team Penske
GMR Grand Prix
No. 26 – Andretti Autosport w/ Curb-Agajanian
106th Indianapolis 500 Presented By Gainbridge
No. 7 – Arrow McLaren SP
Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix
No. 2 – Team Penske
Sonsio Grand Prix At Road America
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio
No. 21 – Ed Carpenter Racing
Honda Indy Toronto
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
Hy-VeeDeals.com 250 presented by DoorDash
No. 12 – Team Penske
Hy-Vee Salute To Farmers 300 presented by Google
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
Gallagher Grand Prix
No. 2 – Team Penske
Big Machine Music City Grand Prix
No. 10 – Chip Ganassi Racing
Bommarito Automotive Group 500
No. 12 – Team Penske
Grand Prix of Portland
No. 12 – Team Penske
Firestone Grand Prix Of Monterey
No. 12 – Team Penske
The No. 9 Chip Ganassi Racing crew of Scott Dixon perform a pit stop at the Iowa Speedway. The “Wolf Pack” helped Dixon spend the least time on pit road during the Hy-Vee Salute To Farmers 300 presented by Google (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
The quickest crew doesn’t always win the race, but it certainly helps to have one of the five fastest. Eleven of the 17 winners had their crew finish in the top five quickest of the race, and every winner’s over-the-wall group was in the top half of that race’s competition. As a result, the average finishing position of the race winner in the Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award standings was precisely five.
Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award winning crews (includes the Indianapolis 500)
RANK
ENTRY
WIN
1
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
4
2
No. 12 – Team Penske
4
3
No. 2 – Team Penske
3
4
No. 3 – Team Penske
2
5
No. 26 – Andretti Autosport w/ Curb-Agajanian
1
6
No. 21 – Ed Carpenter Racing
1
7
No. 7 Arrow McLaren SP
1
8
No. 10 – Chip Ganassi Racing
1
Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award top five crew finishes (includes the Indianapolis 500)
RANK
ENTRY
TOP 5s
1
No. 3 – Team Penske
12
2
No. 12 – Team Penske
11
3
No. 9 – Chip Ganassi Racing
9
4
No. 2 – Team Penske
8
5
No. 10 – Chip Ganassi Racing
7
6
No. 21 – Ed Carpenter Racing
6
7
No. 5 – Arrow McLaren SP
5
8
No. 15 – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
4
9
No. 60 – Meyer Shank Racing
4
10
No. 7 Arrow McLaren SP
4
11
No. 26 – Andretti Autosport w/ Curb-Agajanian
3
12
No. 8 – Chip Ganassi Racing
2
13
No. 28 – Andretti Autosport
2
14
No. 30 – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
2
15
No. 20 – Ed Carpenter Racing
1
16
No. 77 – Juncos Hollinger Racing
1
17
No. 48 – Chip Ganassi Racing
1
18
No. 23 – Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
1
19
No. 33 – Ed Carpenter Racing
1
20
No. 29 – Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport
1
The No. 23 Dreyer & Reinbold Racing crew services Santino Ferrucci during the 106th Indianapolis 500 Presented By Gainbridge. The crew spent the third least time on pit road, an impressive feat for a one-off entry. (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
Firestone Pit Stop Performance Award top ten crew finishes (includes the Indianapolis 500)
Ed (Steve) note: TSO has been fortunate to have Diane Swintal join our Indianapolis 500 qualifying (and race day) coverage. Diane is currently a Public Relations Coordinator with Andersen Promotions and Sunday Group Management. The Southern Californian has been in open-wheel and sports car paddocks her entire life. Her ‘side hustle’ is writing about America’s Cup at CupInfo.com and managing the backend of her husband’s motorsports fine art business. We’re all fortunate to call her a friend. You won’t find a kinder person in the paddock.
By Diane Swintal
In 2016, a young Dutch karting phenom made his first trip to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, announcing to the motorsports world that he would move to the United States to advance his racing career.
At the time, Rinus Veekay noted that “being at the 100th Running of the Indy 500 – and seeing what my future will hopefully be – is amazing.”
Rinus van Kalmthout (VeeKay) announces his move to the United States at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in 2016 (Photo Courtesy of https://rinusvankalmthout.com)
In 2022, that young karter-turned-NTT INDYCAR SERIES standout comes into PPG Armed Forces Qualifying pole day as one of the favorites to secure the P1 Award as the pole sitter for the 106th Running of the Indianapolis 500.
In his first qualifying run on a chaotic Saturday (as it turns out, fortuitously drawn as the second car out to qualify), Veekay set a four-lap average of 233.655 mph in his No. 21 Ed Carpenter Racing Bitcoin Racing Team with BitNile Dallara Chevrolet. It was the third-fastest four-lap average in Indy 500 history and the best since 1996, when his countryman (and mentor) Arie Luyendyk posted a 236.986.
Twelve drivers will take the green flag on Sunday to fight for a spot in the Firestone Fast Six and, ultimately, the most valued pole position of the season. But Veekay is no stranger to pressure – and success – at IMS. In three seasons on the Road to Indy Presented by Cooper Tires, Veekay scored five podiums in seven races at IMS, including a victory in the second of two Indy Lights races at the 2019 GMR Grand Prix. And, of course, Veekay captured his first NTT INDYCAR SERIES victory from pole last year in the GMR Grand Prix and became the youngest front-row qualifier in Indy 500 history, starting third at age 20.
Having finished second in USF2000 in 2017 and Indy Lights in 2019 – with a championship title win in Indy Pro 2000 in 2018 – Veekay became the first driver to win on all three levels of the Road to Indy and in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES.
So what is it about IMS that suits Veekay? In 2021 after capturing that INDYCAR victory at Indy in only his nineteenth career start, he said, “It’s amazing. Of course, my first-ever test in USF2000 was here, the Chris Griffis test in 2016. So yeah, just amazing to have so much experience on this track and go through the ladder system and win races and know how to race here. It was an awesome race, and it just feels amazing, and I’m very grateful for what the Road to Indy has done for me.”
Rinus VeeKay celebrates his first NTT INDYCAR SERIES win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in 2021 (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment- Joe Skibinski)
And as he told the Road to Indy later that year, “it meant a lot to finally win here. If you join the Road to Indy, the race you want to win is Indy. It took a little bit longer than I had hoped, but finally I have a win here in front of the big INDYCAR crowds.”
No bigger stage awaits Veekay than the fight for the pole position on Sunday. He will battle three of his fellow young INDYCAR hot shots – 2021 series champ Alex Palou, 2018 Indy Lights champ and three-time INDYCAR race winner Pato O’Ward, and explosive Swede Felix Rosenqvist, who held the top four positions on Saturday – and no fewer than eight of the most celebrated veterans the series has ever known (2013 Indy 500 champ Tony Kanaan, seven-time NASCAR champ and 2022 rookie Jimmie Johnson, three-time Indy 500 pole sitter Ed Carpenter, Formula One vets Marcus Ericsson and Romain Grosjean [who is a rookie at Indy], six-time INDYCAR champ and 2008 Indy 500 winner Scott Dixon, 2018 Indy 500 winner Will Power and two-time Indy 500 winner Takuma Sato).
Rinus VeeKay (Ed Carpenter Racing) during Saturday qualifying for the 2022 Indianapolis 500. The Dutchman is one of the favorites to win the pole Photo Courtesy Of Penske Entertainment – Chris Jones)
But few observers doubt that Veekay will be up to the task on Sunday. In 2019, Veekay remembered back to that youngster making his first trip to the Brickyard, telling the Road to Indy what he would have wanted his 15-year-old self to know as he began the journey that would take him to the pinnacle of open-wheel racing:
“Keep pushing and never give up. It’s not always easy, but if you give it everything you have, and if you have the talent, you will get there in any way possible. I learned that when I just lost out on the championship in 2017, then went on to win in 2018. In the end, it all pays off.”
Will it pay off on Sunday afternoon? Time will tell.
In January, PeopleReady, a partner of the NTT INDYCAR SERIES, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, and specialists in providing quick and reliable on-demand labor and highly skilled workers, announced the generous Force for Good Challenge. The season-long challenge offers a $1 million prize for any driver that can win at least one race on a natural terrain road course, street circuit, and oval.
With wins on the Texas Motor Speedway oval and at the Long Beach street circuit, Newgarden has completed two-thirds of the challenge in only three races.
I haven’t really thought about it,” said Newgarden, playing it cool when TSO asked about it after his Long Beach win. “A couple of people said it to me in Victory Lane, and I was like, if it happens, it happens.”
Newgarden’s charities of choice are Wags and Walks and Serious Fun Camps. Both are charities that are close to the Tennessean. Newgarden and his wife Ashley adopted their dog, Axel, from Wags and Walks, and Serious Fun Camps have been the beneficiary of his annual charity ping-pong event.
Josef Newgarden at the 2021 edition of his annual charity ping-pong event (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment – Chris Owens)
Newgarden will have seven chances – Barber Motorsports Park, Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course (twice), Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, Portland International Raceway, Road America, and WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca – to win the generous prize.
The soon-to-be dad has won at four of the six natural terrain road courses the series will visit, including three wins at Barber Motorsports Park, the next opportunity Newgarden will have to collect the PeopleReady Force for Good Challenge prize.
Newgarden’s 22 NTT INDYCAR SERIES wins are spread relatively evenly among the three circuit types, with nine wins on ovals, seven on natural terrain road courses, and six on street circuits.
“It makes me feel like a real INDYCAR driver, to be honest with you,” said Newgarden when TSO asked him what it means to be equally competent on all types of tracks. “I think that’s what makes our sport great. We talk about it a lot, but it’s the truth. The thing that sets INDYCAR apart is the diversity of the racing. We love having the best of the best from around the world and having to compete on all types of tracks, and having to master all disciplines. If you can’t master all disciplines, then it’s so difficult to succeed in this sport.”
Winning on all three types of circuits is nothing new to Newgarden, who completed the task in 2017 and 2020.
Newgarden has already helped his charities, with PeopleReady splitting $10,000 with the team, driver, and charities for every race they win.
Josef Newgarden celebrates his second win of the 2022 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment- Joe Skibinski)
Posted by Steve Wittich on Wednesday, September 8th 2021
By Tony DiZinno
An NTT INDYCAR SERIES season the likes of which we haven’t seen in ages is nearing its final act.
The word age has been one of the defining words of this 2021 season. A pair of drivers in their second full seasons, both under 25 years old, stand ready to capture their maiden championship. To get there, either will need to dethrone the last two drivers who won an IndyCar crown under age 30 and who combined have locked out the last four titles. And if all four of these falter, a fifth driver in his third year who few would have forecast as a championship contender preseason could swoop in.
The fab five, as you were, are points leader Pato O’Ward, most-of-season points leader Alex Palou, two-time champion Josef Newgarden, six-time champ Scott Dixon and stealthy Marcus Ericsson.
Add in the variable that O’Ward, Palou and Ericsson have a combined zero IndyCar starts at Portland, one at Monterey and two at Long Beach – the final three West Coast races – and the degree of unpredictability continues to increase.
It all adds up to a fascinating finish that will test the mature beyond their years, but still youthful, trio of title contending newcomers against the tried-and-true Newgarden and Dixon, who will look to capture the crown once more.
Pato
The enthusiastic and energetic O’Ward, just 22, has the potential to be the first driver outside of Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport to win a title since the last full Champ Car season in 2007 (Sebastien Bourdais, Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing). If you want to go back even further, he’d be the first to do so outside those three in the series known as IndyCar since 2002, when Sam Hornish Jr. doubled up for Panther Racing.
Arrow McLaren SP, under the direction of team president and O’Ward’s strategist Taylor Kiel, is as close as any team to breaking into the proverbial “big three” stranglehold based primarily on O’Ward’s recent finishing consistency to match his unbridled pace. He had a pair of 15th or worse finishes in the first five races, but has finished worse than ninth just once in the last eight. When he hasn’t had the qualifying pace, he’s maximized his finishes, and what those string of fourth-to-ninth place results lack in glamour they make up for in points gold.
That consistency word, though, is the potential poison pill I fear could rear its ugly head in these last three races. Three sub 16th-place starts this year have left O’Ward a bit of work to do. He’s pulled out some rabbits in coordination with the rapid No. 5 Chevrolet pit crew and his own on-track passing prowess, turning those poor starts into first, eighth and 15th place finishes. He’s had his mulligans and simply can’t afford those in the last three races, but he’s had a pair of strong tests at both Portland and Monterey. His odds are good for the title if he can just keep doing what he’s doing.
Palou
Palou’s effervescent attitude has been tested by two brutal races in a row at the worst time, through no fault of his own. Each year one drivers bears the brunt of unreliability and Palou’s luck with powerplants this year has been ill-timed. Setting aside the results issues, he’s also had grid penalties to deal with, and that remains a looming concern in the back end if any further gremlins arise in the final trio of events.
You could argue though that he’s not nearly in as bad a position as back-to-back 27th and 20th place results would indicate. Despite losing a 40-plus points advantage, he’s still only 10 back of O’Ward. That’s easily achievable to overcome with a win or just putting O’Ward a few spots down. He generally always seemed happy in the lead. Now, chasing, he actually has less to lose because he’s already been through a rough patch. Yes, his margin for error is gone but combined with the No. 10 NTT Data Chip Ganassi Racing crew, he has nowhere to go but up as he heads to three tracks he’s never raced on before. How fast he learns and rolls off the trailer will be key to his success and whether he can recapture the points lead.
The always smiling pilot of the No. 10 NTT DATA Honda, Álex Palou (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment – Chris Jones)
Newgarden
Newgarden has spent the year digging out of a near last place hole in the points standings after his rare, unforced error in the Barber season opener. Where Newgarden, now 30, may have held back to score points earlier in the year – I think he could have potentially gone for the win versus Colton Herta at St. Petersburg, for instance – he’s now in the position of playing with house money and that beautiful late-season word: momentum.
After the loss of two surefire wins at Detroit 2 and Road America, Newgarden sat 88 points behind then-leader Palou with nine races complete and at the time, eight races to go. Then that become seven when Toronto fell off the calendar. Now, he’s just 12 points behind Palou and 22 behind O’Ward. It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Chevrolet, usually adorned in Hitachi colors, and the crew featuring master strategist Tim Cindric and ace engineer Gavin Ward. The championship-tested ringer he’s gone through the last four years will play to his benefit. If there’s one weird outlier, it’s that the driver who now has 20 career wins hasn’t yet won at any of the final three West Coast venues. One or more wins to erase that stat could go a long way towards securing a third, and perhaps most unexpected, title.
Josef Newgarden leads championship rival Álex Palou at Road America before a mechanical issue cost the two-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES champ a sure win Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment – James Black)
Dixon
Dixon, who famously rallied from more than 40 points down in the last race of 2015 at Sonoma to win his fourth crown won’t have the benefit of a double points finale to do so likewise this year. And bizarre as this might be to say, on pure recent form of the five title contenders, Dixon’s No. 9 PNC Bank Grow Up Great Honda has not been as competitive as any of his four rivals.
Dixon has had just one podium finish (second at Nashville) in the last 10 races. That contrasts to Palou’s five, O’Ward’s four, Newgarden’s four and Ericsson’s three in the same period. Sure, there have been three fourth places in that time frame (Texas 2, Road America, Mid-Ohio) but even so those have featured some combination of those other four that have finished ahead of him, and key points lost.
It adds up to a highly unusual position for Dixon, now 41, to be in. He’s not out of it, but at 43 points back, he has to jump three cars rather than one or two. But this is Dixon and the No. 9 Chip Ganassi Racing team we’re talking about. The moment you underestimate them, or write them off at your own peril, they go full “Wolfpack” on you and win another title.
Ericsson
Ericsson, at 60 points back, has the longest odds of the five still in within remaining shouting distance. The sneaky, stealthy Swede has been incredibly consistent all season. He’s only finished worse than 12th once, and he’s riding a hot streak of seven straight top-10 finishes. Together with strategist Mike O’Gara and engineer Brad Goldberg, two key assets to Ganassi’s former Ford GT IMSA program, Ericsson and the No. 8 Huski Chocolate Chip Ganassi Racing Honda have been a persistent thorn in the side of many throughout the year.
Marcus Ericsson is focussed on winning his first championship since the taking the top spot in the Japanese Formula 3 Championship in 2009 (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment – Chris Owens)
Similar to Palou, Ericsson can enter these last three races without much reservation. O’Gara and Goldberg’s roles on the pit box are massively instrumental from a results-gaining standpoint. Portland has thrown up two rather wacky races since its return to the calendar in 2018, and may afford an off-sequence gamble to pay dividends. Ericsson’s never raced there, and only has a recent test to go off of for his weekend experience. Portland alone should make or break his title hopes, but if he can gain in the 15 to 20-point ballpark on some if not all of his rivals, he’s still in with a great shot to keep a shock championship challenge alive.
Who blinks first?
What fascinates me about the five title combatants is that it features three drivers in with their first real shot at trying to win a title in IndyCar, against two who know how to do it. Making the leap from contender to champ doesn’t come without pitfalls.
Sometimes you have to lose a title first before you can win one. Most famously, Will Power lost three straight from 2010-‘12 before finally breaking through in 2014. Americans Alexander Rossi and Graham Rahal have come close yet remain without one in their careers. Ryan Briscoe’s pit lane faux pas at Motegi, Japan undid a year where he looked poised to secure a title and he never got close again. And then Helio Castroneves was in contention so many times but the cards never fell his way.
Dixon and Newgarden realistically won their first title shots, and that cements them as the two standard-bearers in the series. Dixon did so in the all-oval 2003 IRL season, emerging on top of a five-horse race that also featured Castroneves, Hornish, Gil de Ferran, and Tony Kanaan at the top. Newgarden was mathematically but not realistically alive for the 2015 finale. So his first real shot to win the title came in the last race of his first Penske season, 2017, and he brought it home.
O’Ward, Palou and Ericsson are the first three of a generation of future IndyCar stars who may become annual championship contenders. Others will follow, most notably Colton Herta and Rinus VeeKay as soon as they can string full seasons together given their already race-winning prowess.
Boiling it all down
Of the three, I like O’Ward’s moxie the most. He knows these three circuits better than Palou and Ericsson and he knows how to win an open-wheel championship in North America, having had two very different cracks at titles during his Road to Indy presented by Cooper Tires career.
He was admittedly raw at just 17 years old when battling Team Pelfrey teammate Aaron Telitz for the 2016 Pro Mazda title in Monterey. A scuffling weekend included contact with Telitz and an ultimate defeat that’s looked greater on the Birchwood, Wis. native’s resume over time.
Where O’Ward grew from a confidence standpoint was a year later, during his first of two “career wilderness” years in 2017. Out of Indy Lights after just a handful of races, O’Ward took up an IMSA LMPC prototype seat with Brent O’Neill’s Performance Tech operation, where he flourished in the Florida-based, family atmosphere team. O’Ward’s race craft improved to match his pace and he won all the races but one that season en route to the title.
It made a remarkable difference in his stature when he went back to Indy Lights in 2018. Beating Herta straight-up as teammates at Andretti Autosport grew from those two previous years. The moves he made when he needed to – including an epic battle at Portland that propelled him to the crown – were the sign of a driver who’d developed even faster than anticipated.
Pato O’Ward celebrates winning the Indy Lights presented by Cooper Tires championship at Portland International Raceway in 2018 (Photo Courtesy Of Andersen Promotions)
Those learnings and surviving his hardship, roller coaster 2019 racing IndyCar, Super Formula and F2 all while having a sip of a Red Bull Junior contract continued to help mold and embolden the young Mexican for 2020, a highly unusual first full-time season in IndyCar with Arrow McLaren SP.
There’s a funny subplot to O’Ward versus Newgarden and the Ganassi trio battle. His teammate Felix Rosenqvist may yet play a bit role as a supporting act. What better motivation for him to help his current team than to deny his old one, Ganassi, yet another title?
So O’Ward is the driver I like among the trio of first-time title contenders. Of Newgarden and Dixon, I’ll take Newgarden as my other title rival down to the wire. For Newgarden to gain more than 30 points on the championship lead in one race is highly unusual at this stage in the season, so at only 22 back with three to play means he’s in a great position.
The other factor I think plays to both O’Ward and Newgarden’s benefits? They can have the full resources of their teams dedicated to just their championship battles.
Ganassi has been the best team in IndyCar this season. But paradoxically, because the team has three title contenders, perhaps Palou, Dixon and Ericsson take points off each other in the final three races.
Picking a champion? That’s tougher still.
The preseason testing talk centered around O’Ward as a strong contender to win this year’s championship. If he does, at 22, he’ll be younger than a driver who scored his first title at 23 and the youngest driver to do so since that time.
That guy? Dixon in 2003. O’Ward was 4 at the time.
A just turned 23-year-old Scott Dixon celebrates his first INDYCAR Championship in 2003 (Photo Courtesy of Penske Entertainment)
A big, big part of me thinks Newgarden will ride the momentum wave to steal the crown away.
But it feels like the right capper to this changing of the guard year would be a changing of the guard driver and team to win the title.
O’Ward and Arrow McLaren SP’s title-winning moment has arrived. Now, they have to seize it.
Posted by Steve Wittich on Wednesday, August 25th 2021
Embracing “the kid”
By Tony DiZinno
Robin Miller left no doubt about where you stood when you entered the media center for the first time. If you were newer, you had to work just that little bit harder to establish yourself and see that the scribe who’d seen, written and commented on it all knew you weren’t just a flash-in-the-pan, one-off entry like the type he’d seen on track for years. The good thing was, he was there to help.
As any young IndyCar fan would do, I read Robin’s work online and watched his commentary on ESPN and SPEED Channel. The Wind Tunnel days where Robin guest hosted alongside Dave Despain were generally riots and a perfect end to the weekends before for me, the school week restarted.
The first Champ Car race I covered with credentials at Road America in 2007 was meant to be where I met Robin for the first time. Except there was a catch. If I remember correctly, he’d gotten his own credential pulled for writing a scathing commentary about Champ Car’s impending demise on Champ Car’s website, or something of that ilk. Champ Car didn’t last past April of 2008.
Robin broke the unification story in February of that year to indicate the end of the bitter, divisive 12-year split. The point there, obviously, was that Robin knew what was happening better than most and generally outlasted so many other series and sanctioning bodies through his work.
May 2008 was a welcome month to attend my first Indy 500. There was Robin, holding court during the race with the fellow journalists that delivered the stories for the masses to read.
Photo Courtesy of Tony DiZinno
There was almost a passing of the torch at that point I immediately noticed. The late Chris Economaki was at one of his last ‘500s, if not his last, that year as his trademark typewriter was in one of the front rows. After Economaki, Robin always seemed heir to the throne as the new dean of the press room.
Meanwhile, I was 18 and wondering what I’d need to do for my own career to begin to even scratch the surface of measuring up. But both welcomed me with open arms; they knew the importance of finding young writers to cover this sport they loved so dearly. Economaki gave me my first journalistic opportunity, and Robin was the first journalist who made me feel like I knew what I was doing.
The occasional check-ins at the races I covered throughout my time in college indicated to Robin I wasn’t just a one-off writer at the time and there was a sign I just felt that I was starting to belong (Milwaukee Mile in 2009, below).
Photo Courtesy of Tony DiZinno
I joined RACER Magazine in late summer of 2011 and it felt as though I’d gained access to the club, fully. While there was a personal rocky period in my life as the magazine’s circumstances changed into 2012, Robin never lost faith in “the kid” even as my own work status changed.
The 2013 season was a make-or-break year for me in the sport. Post-RACER, I wasn’t sure if I wanted to stay in racing. A lifeline for me came from NBC Sports of all places with a new blog they’d started. Ironically, RACER absorbed the SPEED.com crew of Robin, his colleague Marshall Pruett and their audience once SPEED transitioned to FOX Sports 1 in August 2013.
So in a roundabout way, Robin and I were both colleagues and competitors simultaneously. We worked together – albeit more adjacent than directly – at NBC since I was on the digital side and he was on the TV side. But he was also my competition on the .com side, and I was always a little intimidated because I knew he was so hard to beat to any scoops. He’d covered the sport almost double the time I’d been alive!
To me, he never saw me as competition. If he did, I never felt it. He was far more of a mentor and guide to help me continue to grow in my career. We exchanged messages and thoughts regularly and when I joined NBC full-time in 2016 after splitting my time for three years, there was a real recognition of how far I’d come. Getting included as the youngest member of the media he pinged for emails, his Indy legends sweatshirts or being mentioned in his trademark Mailbag or silly season columns were among my career highlights.
There were a couple trips to Rusty’s at Barber along the way, and most memorably, a hilarious roast he led of me for my 28th birthday on the Friday of Road America, 2017, saying I’d transformed from a “shy kid who might get eaten alive in this paddock” into someone that “doesn’t take s— from anyone and has even learned to cuss a few times.” The capper was a cake delivered in the media center filled with Milwaukee cultural references and an homage to some inside jokes Robin had had with me over the years.
Photo Courtesy of Tony DiZinno
The 2017 season was my last covering IndyCar full-time for NBC after five seasons, as different opportunities have emerged elsewhere along the way. I remember he and I had a chat at Sonoma, on the eve of Josef Newgarden winning his first title, where he pulled me aside in the paddock and told me, “Son, you’ve come a long way in this business. You’ll keep going as long as you want to. I’m proud of you, kid.”
As I’ve contributed off-and-on to TSO for the better part of 6 years, I’ve always felt at home when I came back, and Robin was always there with open arms. I remember chronicling the roast of Bobby Unser he led in 2018; that was a night that will forever live on in laughter.
I know he wasn’t everyone’s cup of tea and I certainly didn’t agree with every one of his takes. But man, he was an original.
His passing Wednesday felt like a gut punch, even if it still was expected based on his health. But from the first time he called me “kid,” as that was his go-to phrase for most folks, he made me feel like I belonged even if my career has now taken me to different places. And for me, it always felt literal as badge of honor. I’ll forever be thankful that he embraced “the kid.”
Ed Note: Thanks so much to our friend Tony for trusting us with his remembrance of Robin. Steve is working on his own words that will come at a later time.
The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series championship is set to go down the wire with a mix of emerging young stars up against the talented, experienced veterans who are more hardened and battle-tested.
Similarly, the manufacturer’s championship is closer than it may appear at first glance too. Through nine races, Honda leads Chevrolet by only 28 points – 738 to 710 – at the conclusion of last Sunday’s Rev Group Grand Prix from Road America.
Chevrolet’s Rob Buckner. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – Joe Skibinski
TSO was among a handful of media members who caught up Friday with Rob Buckner, Chevrolet Racing Engineering Program Manager for IndyCar, to reflect on the manufacturer’s season so far and also discuss the road ahead as it is also preparing for INDYCAR’s new 2023 engine formula that will see displacement increase from the 2.2-liter twin-turbocharged Chevrolet Indy V6 up to 2.4 liters.
To summarize the year to this point, Buckner had a simple message: Chevrolet has been good, but not great. Yet.
“Across our whole program, I wouldn’t say we’re satisfied; the results and struggles during May speaks very clearly that there’s a lot of work to be done,” he explained.
“We’re trying to custom tailor our support package to each of our teams to make sure in some instances that we turn things around and in others keep them going in the right direction. There’s a lot to be working on at the moment.”
In 2021, Honda holds the edge in victories (6 to 3) while Chevrolet has more pole positions (4 to 3) in sessions where qualifying has occurred. Chevrolet has won the last three poles with Pato O’Ward in Detroit I, then Josef Newgarden in Detroit II and Road America.
In their second full seasons, Pato O’Ward (Arrow McLaren SP) and Rinus VeeKay (Ed Carpenter Racing) have won their first races and entered the championship picture sitting in second and sixth place, respectively.
Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden and Simon Pagenaud also hold top-10 spots in fourth and fifth, with Will Power in 11th and just two points outside the top 10.
Penske’s Season So Far
The glaring statistic through nine races that jumps out is Team Penske’s lack of race wins to this point. As Steve has noted throughout the year, this run is the longest to start a season since Team Penske’s last winless campaign in 1999.
But with Penske having been oh so close to winning the last three races – Power and Newgarden have combined to lead 136 of 195 laps before either electrical gremlins or well-worn tires proved their undoing – Buckner noted it’s just been a freaky run of unfortunate circumstances all hitting at once.
Team Penske’s led plenty of laps, just not the right ones. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – Chris Owens
“The good news is over the last few events is we’ve shown up with quick race cars,” Buckner said. “Having been involved in motorsports for such a long time, if you keep showing up with fast race cars, eventually it’s going to be your day. So especially leaving Road America; I wish we weren’t coming up to an off weekend! I wish we were going to Mid-Ohio today to keep plugging away at it. We’re so close to getting a win with them; it just seems like the last few events haven’t unfolded in our favor.
“I don’t know how I could task the Chevrolet group with preparing for Detroit or Road America any differently. It’s just circumstance, and eventually we’re going to get there. Both camps are operating that way. Chevrolet, we’re going to help them the best we can and I know from talking to Tim Cindric and Ron Ruzewski, that side is putting in the most effort possible to make sure we can close out the year strong. So far it’s all been very positive dialogue with them. One, if we keep showing up with fast race cars and no one’s style is out of control, we’ll get some wins.”
Chevrolet’s Strength in Depth of Teams
The good news for the Chevrolet camp is that where Team Penske is yet to win a race, two of its other teams have, and those are the first non-Penske Chevrolet winners in five years. In fact it was Scott Dixon, in Chip Ganassi Racing’s second-to-last race with Chevrolet before switching to Honda, that was the last non-Penske Chevrolet win in IndyCar at Watkins Glen in 2016.
Pato O’Ward celebrates Detroit II win with General Motors President Mark Reuss. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – Joe Skibinski
Arrow McLaren SP has hit its stride with O’Ward’s No. 5 entry, hitting the jackpot on two occasions in Texas and at Newgarden’s expense in Detroit II.
The latter’s importance can’t be understated considering how pivotal the races are on Belle Isle to the brass watching from GM’s corporate headquarters at the Renaissance Center up the road, and who make it out to the track over the course of the weekend. That marked AMSP’s first win as the newly named entry since James Hinchcliffe’s Iowa win in 2018.
Ed Carpenter Racing’s winless drought ran even further back to 2016, Newgarden’s last year with the team, when he delivered a gritty and dominant drive at Iowa. That VeeKay’s win occurred for Carpenter at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the No. 21 Sonax machine also wasn’t lost on Buckner and Chevrolet.
“That’s an area we have worked hard to address is the depth of the Chevy program,” Buckner explained. “VeeKay in the 21 car and everyone at Ed Carpenter Racing have had their heads down and been digging the last couple years, so it’s been great to see them get some results with the 21 car.
“That was a really big win – seeing an Ed Carpenter Racing win at Indianapolis was really special for all of us being involved with him since 2012, Tim Broyles and that whole group. Really happy for them; their month of May performance wasn’t just great for them but it was great from the Chevrolet perspective.
Rinus VeeKay’s victory celebration matched the IMS wings. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – Joe Skibinski
“You mentioned Arrow McLaren SP, and that program has turned out to be pretty much everything we had hoped for when we laid that out a couple of years ago and where we could go. We’ve always been excited to have Pato in a Chevy in IndyCar; he’s a remarkable talent, and we’re hoping we can keep him in the Chevy family for a long time.”
Buckner also stressed the importance of “custom tailoring” solutions to ensure the continued progression of the manufacturer’s other full-time teams, A.J. Foyt Enterprises and Carlin Racing. Sebastien Bourdais opened the year with a solid fifth and 10th but has since been stuck 16th or worse in six of the last seven races aboard the No. 14 ROKiT Chevrolet. Carlin’s Max Chilton got a result he’s been due for a while, with a top-10 coming last time out at Road America in his No. 59 Match Fit Pass entry.
Adapting to Driver Changes… and Extra Cars?
Chevrolet has had 11 full-time entries this year but not all of them have had the same drivers in each. To wit, Conor Daly has reprised his role as Carpenter’s primary road and street course driver in the No. 20 U.S. Air Force machine, then shifting to Carlin’s No. 59 car at Texas once Carpenter resumed his usual oval running and then back to Carpenter’s third car, the No. 47, at the Indianapolis 500.
Two other cars have had unplanned changes, with injuries sidelining VeeKay and Felix Rosenqvist in the last two races. It’s provided opportunities for Oliver Askew, who’s filled in admirably for both on short notice, and also for Kevin Magnussen, who made his IndyCar debut in the No. 7 Arrow McLaren SP car at Road America. And although the Dane, the first to run in IndyCar since Ronnie Bremer in Champ Car in 2005, had track experience from testing his Chip Ganassi Racing Cadillac DPi-V.R in May he was still thrown in at the deep end in an IndyCar.
Kevin Magnussen with Arrow McLaren SP and Chevrolet crew members pre-race at Road America. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – James Black
“I feel for Kevin because his seat fit was in the middle of last week and then Road America is a tough place to go into without a test,” Buckner explained. “A 45-minute session, you might get 2-3 representative laps. He was drinking from a firehose all weekend. The team really enjoyed working with him.
“His engine feedback was interesting. He had a lot of similarities to others; he said our package can be a little difficult to drive, nothing too surprising. It’s very impressive he drove the car for 45 minutes and basically gave us the same summary of strengths and weaknesses like guys like Bourdais and Pagenaud, who have driven this package on-and-off since 2012. That speaks to the talent he is.”
Buckner also said there has been a “lot of interest” regarding extra entries running one-off races later this year.
While it’s not his news to announce, he said he would not be surprised if Nashville, Long Beach and potentially other races have bumper grids thanks to returning teams fielding extra cars.
“For us, leaving the Indy 500, we have quite a few low-mileage engines due to our car count at Indy, so doing one-off entries later in the season is pretty easy for us from an engine perspective. We just need the people to be able to support that,” he said.
Extra cars would add another wrinkle to the championship battles, given the car count has already been a solid 23 to 25 in each race thus far.
Preparing for the Home Stretch
Keeping cars to four engines or less ensures they don’t go to a fifth, and therefore become ineligible to score manufacturer points. Through nine races, Bourdais’ No. 14 car is the only Chevrolet on its fourth engine. Honda has two on its fourth, and one of them is the championship leader, Alex Palou in his No. 10 NTT Data entry for Chip Ganassi Racing. Meyer Shank’s Jack Harvey is also on a fourth.
“The best thing we can do on our side is keep our entries to four engines or less for the year, because that keeps them points eligible,” Buckner said. “So there’s a big focus on making sure the 11 full-time entries are eligible to score points, particularly for the West Coast swing towards the end of the year. Because if some are on engine five, the situation could be close enough where that’s the deciding factor.
“The easiest way to ensure it is to go 1-2 and sit on the pole, and score the maximum 96 points. Focus on winning races and the manufacturer’s stuff will take care of itself!” Buckner laughed.
Special 10th season signage on the Chevrolet Indy V6 engine. Photo courtesy Penske Entertainment – Joe Skibinski
Chevrolet’s focus on reliability, performance and efficiency has served it well in its 10th season of competition since returning to the series in 2012.
The manufacturer achieved its 100th pole in that time frame with O’Ward in the Barber season opener. It’s at 92 wins with the three scored this year, so the 100th win will have to wait until at least 2022 even if Chevrolet swept the remaining seven races of 2021.
Chevrolet won six consecutive manufacturer’s championships from 2012 through 2017, but seeks to wrest the title back from Honda after three straight for the California-based arm of the Japanese company. They’re still in good position to do so depending on Mid-Ohio’s result, and then into the pair of tripleheaders in August and September that cap off the season.
And for proof of how far the engine development has come over 10 years, Buckner noted that a 2012 Chevrolet Indy V6 wouldn’t be near the competitive level it is now in 2021.
“You’d be making a 2012 engine, probably in the neighborhood of 100 horsepower down to current race engines, while being massively inefficient in comparison with poor drivability. It’s not a very refined package. I think if you could take a 2021 race engine and race it against a field of 2012 cars, it could probably lap the field! It would be unbelievable, and that would be a remarkable performance difference.
“But that shows how both suppliers have really pushed each other in development and have to continuously be getting better.”
It’s going to be an interesting road ahead to the rest of this season’s manufacturer battle and then into the final season of this formula in 2022.
TSO will have more on Buckner’s thoughts about how Chevrolet is preparing for 2022 and then 2023 in a further feature.
After the 70-lap race, an emotional and upset Will Power from Team Penske talked to Kevin Lee from NBC Sports, saying:
I’m mad at INDYCAR. Because I’m the first car in, and they wait until the last car to come to get a fan on that car, and it roasted the ECU (Electronic Control Unit).
And, just going to a red flag, for starters. The guys up there in race control never listen to any drivers. They never listen; they don’t care. We’ve given them so many suggestions, and they don’t care.
I drove my ASS off today to have this happen!
I was screaming on the radio, ‘we need a fan, get a fan.” (from Lee, it wasn’t for you, it was for the car?). Yeah, because the ECU always overheats. They wait for everyone. These guys (behind me) still had air coming in the car.
You work your ass off in this sport. So much money goes into it and doesn’t, and it has dumb decisions like that.
Man, if it’s not a yellow they throw, it’s some stupid idea like this – a red flag. Gah.
The No. 12 Verizon 5G Team Penske crew was able to his power plant going again, but he finished 20th, three laps behind winner Marcus Ericsson. The Aussie was the dominant driver on the day, leading the most laps (37 years), turning the second quickest lap of the race and the fastest leader lap. Power had built over a one-second lead over Ericsson when Grosjean hit the wall in Turn 9.
Note from Steve: Butch Welsch is a long-time friend and subscriber of TSO, and his Indianapolis 500 thoughts and predictions have become one of our favorite “Month Of May” traditions. He does such a great job of previewing this year’s race, I’m afraid I might find myself replaced on the “preview beat.”
Note from Tony: We’d originally shipped Butch’s comprehensive preview earlier this week but due to a technical glitch, some of our subscribers may not have received it. So, to ensure we continue one of TSO’s longest standing “Month of May” traditions, and now with Carb Day complete, it’s just as good a time to ensure Butch’s preview hits your inboxes once more just to be safe.
Spoiler Alert! I always wanted to say that, but nothing I have ever written was that noteworthy. However, this spoiler is to protect TSO and the writer. While I do my very best in presenting my opinions of the upcoming 500, these opinions are not being presented to encourage you to bet your hard earned wages on my suggestions. With so many on-line betting options available now, I want you to know that these predictions are for purposes of discussion only. Therefore approach any parlor, bookie or on-line betting service at your own risk.
What makes the above statement even more important is how difficult it is to predict a winner for this 105th running of the race. As previous readers will know, I typically divide the field approximately in thirds. The first group consists of those drivers who are most likely to drink the milk. The second group is those who have a possibility of winning if misfortune befalls several in group one. The last group is those who help make up the field of 33, but for a number of reasons they are very unlikely to be the first to pull into victory lane.
The problem this year is that there seems to be a real “changing of the guard” in Indy Car. In the first races of the season, a number of youngsters have stolen the spotlight from the traditional veterans. There have been three first time winners (Alex Palou, Pato O’Ward and Rinus Veekay) in the first five races, with 21 year old Colton Herta winning one and the fifth by veteran, Scott Dixon. The question is whether or not these young speedsters will be able to translate their aggressive driving style into an Indy 500 win. To quote four time winner, Rick Mears: “To finish first, you must first finish”. Rick always coaches his drivers to drive conservatively to be around for the last 50 -100 miles. Will the young guns have that patience?
Enough about the excuses as to why this task is going to be difficult. Here are my thoughts on the possibilities of this year’s 33 fastest qualifiers.
I’m going to cheat slightly on my “groups of three” predictions. This year I am adding a Group 1A. The reason is that one driver stands out from the crowd and appears to be more likely than any of the other 32 to take home the big prize. That is Scott Dixon and his Chip Ganassi entered PNC Bank car. Scott captured his sixth season championship last year and is one of the five winners this year. Perhaps the only minor hole in his resume is that he has “only” one Indy 500 win, that back in 2008. However, he nearly won last year and seems to be getting better with age. I know he would like to add another Baby Borg to his trophy cabinet, and seems to be ready this year. Another stat that might make Scotty more likely to win is that Chip Ganassi’s last win at the Speedway was in 2012. You know that no one would like to take home a bunch of Roger Penske’s money than Chip. Keep an eye on number 9.
Next comes group number 1- those most likely to drink the milk if something happens to Dixon. That group starts with drivers from the Andretti Autosports team. Surprisingly, the most likely from Michael’s team is the youngest, Colton Herta. He already has Indy Car wins in his resume and came within a blink of the eye of being the youngest pole sitter in 500 history last Sunday. There is no doubt he will be fast. If his dad, Bryan, can coach him to control his aggression, it would not be surprising at all to see Colton in victory lane. Michael’s teams have certainly proven that they are capable.
Next from the Andretti stable is 7th starting Ryan Hunter Reay. A previous winner in 2014, and with top-tens in each of the last three years, if this popular driver can find a little more speed at the end, he could challenge for the victory.
Normally, Alexander Rossi would be higher on the list of likely winners. After his 2016 win, he had finishes of 7th, 4th, 2nd and then last year was battling Scott Dixon for the lead when a pit error relegated him to the back of a pack where passing was nearly impossible. Thus every year he has been competitive at the Speedway. However, this year, in addition to qualifying only 10th fastest in the field, his record in the first five races has given the impression that all is not right in the Rossi camp. His past Speedway record means he has to be considered a favorite, but will his recent record of mistakes take him out of contention as it did in 2020?
Ed Carpenter will start on the inside of row 2, on Sunday. He has three pole wins at the Speedway and a second and sixth in 2018 and 2019 respectively. His cars have always had speed but that qualifying speed has not always translated into fast cars in traffic. A win by Ed would be extremely popular as he is a hometown boy who is well-liked by fans at the track. If he can stay in the hunt and get into the lead near the end this could be his year.
A very popular previous winner with a good shot this year is veteran Tony Kanaan. Tony finally won the Borg Warner trophy in 2013 for KV Racing. While he has moved around since then and has only competed in oval events recently, the fact that he is part of the Chip Ganassi racing team gives him his best chance in years. I can still remember the cheer that erupted when he won 8 years ago. I can only imagine the roar there would be if TK would win in this, what may be his final year in Indy Car. It would be sad to see this popular champion hang up his helmet without another 500 win.
It seems unusual to see Helio Castroneves in anything but a Penske car. However he has shown real speed in this one off run with Meyer Shank Racing. Helio continues to show the same spirit and enthusiasm he exuded when he first came to the Speedway and won as a rookie in 2001. The fans would be delighted to see “Spiderman” climb the fence a fourth time to join Foyt, Mears and Unser, Sr. in the Four Winner’s Club.
Perhaps a surprise addition to my Likely category is Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward. This youngster has been fast since he first joined Indy Car. After a couple of near misses, he won the only pre-Indy oval race at Texas earlier this May. Arrow McLaren has seemed to turn their program around and appear to be competitive. If Pato can control his aggression and the team gives him the proper pit stops, I know he is fast enough to challenge for the top spot. In any cases I think he will be exciting to watch.
Most surprisingly, the last additions to my Likely group come from Team Penske. Their performance was certainly the surprise of qualifying. The fact that Will Power had to survive the back row shootout is one of the biggest stories of qualifying in recent years.
However, it wasn’t just Will. Josef Newgarden, two time series champion, only managed a 21st starting spot, while 2019 winner, Simon Pagenaud, could do no better than 26th. It is difficult to explain the Penske team’s inability to be near the front this year. While Hondas dominated the top nine, there are two Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolets in the top four. The engine doesn’t seem to be the problem.
Prior to the month of May, with Newgarden’s known speed and the pedigree of two championships, I would have considered him up there with Dixon as a very likely winner. His average finish record at the Speedway over the last three years of 5.7 is the best of all competitors. Since his win in 2019, Pagenaud has seemed re-invigorated and with an average finish of less than 10 the last three years would normally be considered likely.
For some reason, however, the Penske cars never could find the speed in qualifications. Penske’s record at the Speedway indicates that they can find ways to win. As a result, with some differing race strategies and cars that have race pace, you can never count out a Penske team. Therefore, I have to include Newgarden, Pagenaud, and Power in my Likely group.
It was extremely hard to draw a line between the Likely group and the Possible group this year, so I won’t be surprised if many of you have differing opinions. But after all, this is an exercise in drawing attention to this weekend’s Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
Rinus Veekay from Ed Carpenter Racing was a surprise two weekends in a row. First he won the GMR Race on the Indy road course and then followed that up with a qualifying run on the oval which puts him outside the front row. We know the Ed Carpenter Racing team is fast and if they can provide efficiency in the pits, Rinus could be a surprise winner.
Also from Ed Carpenter Racing is Conor Daly. Conor was near the top of the speed charts in practice before qualifying and even in the post qualifying practice. He indicated that they made some adjustments which just didn’t work out, which is why he is only starting in 19th position. Conor feels extremely confident in his chances this year and he would be a very popular winner. Not only because of his own popularity but also because of his car owner. In any case it should be very interesting to see Conor and Josef Newgarden moving through the field from their 7th row starting positions.
Continuing the Possibility group, we are back to the Chip Ganassi Racing team. With Dixon and Kanaan in the top group, it is not surprising that Alex Palou and Marcus Ericsson would be in group 2. Palou, who won the opening race of the season at Barber is starting on the outside of row #2. The fact he took that spot after pancaking the wall near the end of the day on Saturday says a lot about this young man. Chip, like Roger Penske, has always had an eye for talent. The fact that Chip plucked him after just one year in the series, is an indication of the confidence the team has in this young driver.
Finally, the fourth driver in the Chip Ganassi stable is Marcus Ericsson. He rather quietly managed to make the fast nine and with the Ganassi team backing could be a surprise top finisher on race day.
It may seem surprising for me to move last year’s winner and 2017 champion only in the Possible group. The reason is that except for his wins, Takuma Sato’s results at the Speedway have not been all that impressive. In addition we have to take into consideration the likelihood of ANYONE having back-to -back wins at the Speedway. The last time it happened was Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. From there you have to go all the way to 1970 and 1971 when Al Unser, Sr. captured back–to-back wins. A Sato win, while not impossible would be a real surprise.
A more likely probability is Sato’s teammate at Rahal Letterman Racing. That is Graham Rahal. Graham has a decent 13.3 average finish the last three years and seems to have matured into a good, steady driver. So far he seems to be one of those drivers whom bad luck seems to follow. If this is the year when everything falls into place, then Graham could easily find himself in victory lane.
James Hinchcliffe falls into the Possible group not only because he is fast and would be a popular winner, but also because this year he has a full time ride with Andretti Autosports. If the Andretti pedigree and not the curse follow Hinch, then there would be a gigantic roar from the crowd if he crossed the line first.
It was difficult to not put Rookie Scott McLaughlin in the Likely group. Scott has shown speed since he first entered Indy Car and has been quick all month. In fact, he was the highest qualifying of all of the Penske drivers. However, rookies, especially those with very little experience in the series, are not usually able to do everything it takes to finish first after 500 miles. Alexander Rossi was in a similar role and did it in 2016, so it isn’t’ impossible, however I’ll stick with Possible as opposed to Likely despite the Penske backing.
There are two “sleepers” in this field, either one of which could be a big surprise on race day. The first is Juan Pablo Montoya. He already has two Indy wins to his credit separated by 15 years (2000 – 2015) which in itself is amazing. It proves he knows how to be around at the end. This time he is with Arrow McLaren, and their ability to compete for 500 miles with Ganassi, Andretti and Penske comes in question. If you are looking for a dark horse, Juan just might be your choice.
The second sleeper is Sebastien Bourdais, driving for A.J. Foyt racing. Sebastien’s record of CART Championships is amazing so he definitely is familiar with winning. Whether the Foyt team can provide him with the car and the timely pitstops will determine whether or not Likely would have been more appropriate for him.
Next we come to the group which for a number of reasons is very unlikely to be the first one to victory lane. The major obstacle this year is the depth of the field and the extremely strong list of both Likely and Possible teams. The fact that there is so little difference in times and speeds, means that everything has to be perfectly in place for a top finish. With so many teams excelling in so many areas, those top finishes are that much more difficult. So here is the remainder of the field.
We will start with Ed Jones and Pietro Fittipaldi. Ed Jones has driven quickly enough that he might have been included in the Possible category, however, while Dale Coyne’s team has had some success in Indy Car, the ability to perform 8 – 10 pit stops flawlessly and to keep up with the changing track conditions is very difficult for a small team. As a result, I believe a top-ten finish for Ed would be a good result. The situation is similar for Pietro Fitipaldi, the other Dale Coyne entry. He has the extra handicap of being an oval-only driver for the team. There is so much to be said for the establishment of team chemistry and consistency which goes along with not only a full time ride, but a multi-year ride as well. Hopefully Pietro can keep it clean and end up in the top 20.
Felix Rosenquist is with Arrow McLaren this year in a move from Ganassi. Unfortunately, Felix has not seemed to live up to his original potential as emphasized by the fact that he was replaced at Ganassi. While Arrow McLaren definitely seems to be improved and on the upswing, it is hard to imagine that someone who couldn’t make the top ten with Ganassi is going to fare very much better with Arrow McLaren.
I had some trouble making a decision with regard to Jack Harvey. Although he has seemed to pick up his game this year and show more speed, his record of 16th, 21st, and 9th in the last 3 years does not send a message that this is someone who is ready to land on the podium. While he might be a surprise, I believe a 9th place finish similar to last year would be a good outcome for Jack and his Meyer Shank Racing team.
Santonio Ferrucci is making this start with Team Rahal. Santonio showed some promise with Dale Coyne racing, but once released decided to try a full time ride in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Therefore, this ride in the 500 is just a one-off ride for him and the team. It would have been interesting to see how Santonio progressed in Indy Cars given a more extended training period and perhaps a more seasoned crew. One-off rides typically do not end up being very successful in the 500, so he is another that should probably be pleased with a top 15 finish and a car in one piece.
Two cars from the A.J. Foyt stable are, unfortunately, ones destined for 10th to 20th place finishes. J.R. Hildebrand is driving a beautiful #1 patterned after the car A.J. drove to his first 500 victory in 1961. There are many fans who would love to see J.R. enjoy a successful day at the Speedway. Those of us who remember him standing alongside his wrecked car in turn #1 after hitting the wall less than a mile away from victory in 2011, will not soon forget him looking to the sky apparently saying, “Why me?”
Unfortunately he is not likely to be in that position this year.
The other A.J. Foyt entry is Dalton Kellett. He is in his second year with Foyt Racing and managed to squeeze into the field on Saturday and thus avoid the pressure cooker of the last row shootout. This youngster has potential but given that he has only one race, finishing 31st last year and given the team’s recent lack of success, I would think he should be very happy with a top 20 and a car which could be driven onto the hauler.
It seems unusual that I am this far along before getting to the 2020 pole sitter, Marco Andretti. However, Marco is only doing the 500 this year. Given his average finish of 18 the last three years as a full time driver for Andretti Autosports, it is very hard to imagine that this third generation driver can be near the front at the end. A top 10 wouldn’t be out of the question, but much higher is unlikely.
The final driver from the Andretti stable is Stefan Wilson. This is another one-off ride and it is very hard to accomplish much from the 28th starting position, especially without a lot of seat time. I am hopeful that Stefan will have a steady safe day and should be proud to be in the top 20 at the end.
Next comes 29th starter Max Chilton with Carlin Racing. In all honesty, it has been surprising that, given Carlin’s success in Europe, that they have not progressed further up the Indy Car ladder. Max seems to be a steady driver, but for whatever reason the team has not achieved the same level of success to which they had been accustomed. Probably a top 15 is the best that Max can hope to achieve.
Sage Karam is again back with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Hats off to Dennis Reinbold for his continuing support of the 500. It is local 500 enthusiasts, like him, which help insure that we have a 33 car starting field. Sage’s recent 3 year average finish of 23rd probably indicates that this team would be delighted with a top 15 result.
Finally there is Simona de Silvestro, back for her sixth start at Indy after being away since 2015. She is driving for the mostly female Paretta Autosport Team and the fan enthusiasm for her participation has been amazing. She managed to beat out veteran Charlie Kimball and rookie R.C. Enerson to take a pressure filled 33rd starting position. Many fans, both male and female are going to be watching to see Simona progress from that last row starting spot. I would think that a top 20 for this new team would seem like a podium.
There you have it. This is one fan’s predictions/guesses for a race which is virtually impossible to handicap. Hopefully I have given you some food for thought and fodder for discussion with your fellow race fans.
Mainly we are all wishing for a safe and exciting race on Sunday. Enjoy this year’s version of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing.”
Note from Steve: Butch Welsch is a long-time friend and subscriber of TSO, and his Indianapolis 500 thoughts and predictions have become one of our favorite “Month Of May” traditions. He does such a great job of previewing this year’s race, I’m afraid I might find myself replaced on the “preview beat.”
Spoiler Alert! I always wanted to say that, but nothing I have ever written was that noteworthy. However, this spoiler is to protect TSO and the writer. While I do my very best in presenting my opinions of the upcoming 500, these opinions are not being presented to encourage you to bet your hard earned wages on my suggestions. With so many on-line betting options available now, I want you to know that these predictions are for purposes of discussion only. Therefore approach any parlor, bookie or on-line betting service at your own risk.
What makes the above statement even more important is how difficult it is to predict a winner for this 105th running of the race. As previous readers will know, I typically divide the field approximately in thirds. The first group consists of those drivers who are most likely to drink the milk. The second group is those who have a possibility of winning if misfortune befalls several in group one. The last group is those who help make up the field of 33, but for a number of reasons they are very unlikely to be the first to pull into victory lane.
The problem this year is that there seems to be a real “changing of the guard” in Indy Car. In the first races of the season, a number of youngsters have stolen the spotlight from the traditional veterans. There have been three first time winners (Alex Palou, Pato O’Ward and Rinus Veekay) in the first five races, with 21 year old Colton Herta winning one and the fifth by veteran, Scott Dixon. The question is whether or not these young speedsters will be able to translate their aggressive driving style into an Indy 500 win. To quote four time winner, Rick Mears: “To finish first, you must first finish”. Rick always coaches his drivers to drive conservatively to be around for the last 50 -100 miles. Will the young guns have that patience?
Enough about the excuses as to why this task is going to be difficult. Here are my thoughts on the possibilities of this year’s 33 fastest qualifiers.
I’m going to cheat slightly on my “groups of three” predictions. This year I am adding a Group 1A. The reason is that one driver stands out from the crowd and appears to be more likely than any of the other 32 to take home the big prize. That is Scott Dixon and his Chip Ganassi entered PNC Bank car. Scott captured his sixth season championship last year and is one of the five winners this year. Perhaps the only minor hole in his resume is that he has “only” one Indy 500 win, that back in 2008. However, he nearly won last year and seems to be getting better with age. I know he would like to add another Baby Borg to his trophy cabinet, and seems to be ready this year. Another stat that might make Scotty more likely to win is that Chip Ganassi’s last win at the Speedway was in 2012. You know that no one would like to take home a bunch of Roger Penske’s money than Chip. Keep an eye on number 9.
Next comes group number 1- those most likely to drink the milk if something happens to Dixon. That group starts with drivers from the Andretti Autosports team. Surprisingly, the most likely from Michael’s team is the youngest, Colton Herta. He already has Indy Car wins in his resume and came within a blink of the eye of being the youngest pole sitter in 500 history last Sunday. There is no doubt he will be fast. If his dad, Bryan, can coach him to control his aggression, it would not be surprising at all to see Colton in victory lane. Michael’s teams have certainly proven that they are capable.
Next from the Andretti stable is 7th starting Ryan Hunter Reay. A previous winner in 2014, and with top-tens in each of the last three years, if this popular driver can find a little more speed at the end, he could challenge for the victory.
Normally, Alexander Rossi would be higher on the list of likely winners. After his 2016 win, he had finishes of 7th, 4th, 2nd and then last year was battling Scott Dixon for the lead when a pit error relegated him to the back of a pack where passing was nearly impossible. Thus every year he has been competitive at the Speedway. However, this year, in addition to qualifying only 10th fastest in the field, his record in the first five races has given the impression that all is not right in the Rossi camp. His past Speedway record means he has to be considered a favorite, but will his recent record of mistakes take him out of contention as it did in 2020?
Ed Carpenter will start on the inside of row 2, on Sunday. He has three pole wins at the Speedway and a second and sixth in 2018 and 2019 respectively. His cars have always had speed but that qualifying speed has not always translated into fast cars in traffic. A win by Ed would be extremely popular as he is a hometown boy who is well-liked by fans at the track. If he can stay in the hunt and get into the lead near the end this could be his year.
A very popular previous winner with a good shot this year is veteran Tony Kanaan. Tony finally won the Borg Warner trophy in 2013 for KV Racing. While he has moved around since then and has only competed in oval events recently, the fact that he is part of the Chip Ganassi racing team gives him his best chance in years. I can still remember the cheer that erupted when he won 8 years ago. I can only imagine the roar there would be if TK would win in this, what may be his final year in Indy Car. It would be sad to see this popular champion hang up his helmet without another 500 win.
It seems unusual to see Helio Castroneves in anything but a Penske car. However he has shown real speed in this one off run with Meyer Shank racing. Helio continues to show the same spirit and enthusiasm he exuded when he first came to the Speedway and won as a rookie in 2001. The fans would be delighted to see “Spiderman” climb the fence a fourth time to join Foyt, Mears and Unser, Sr. in the Four Winner’s Club.
Perhaps a surprise addition to my Likely category is Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward. This youngster has been fast since he first joined Indy Car. After a couple of near misses, he won the only pre-Indy oval race at Texas earlier this May. Arrow McLaren has seemed to turn their program around and appear to be competitive. If Pato can control his aggression and the team gives him the proper pit stops, I know he is fast enough to challenge for the top spot. In any cases I think he will be exciting to watch.
Most surprisingly, the last additions to my Likely group come from Team Penske. Their performance was certainly the surprise of qualifying. The fact that Will Power had to survive the back row shootout is one of the biggest stories of qualifying in recent years.
However, it wasn’t just Will. Josef Newgarden, two time series champion, only managed a 21st starting spot, while 2019 winner, Simon Pagenaud, could do no better than 26th. It is difficult to explain the Penske team’s inability to be near the front this year. While Hondas dominated the top nine, there are two Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolets in the top four. The engine doesn’t seem to be the problem.
Prior to the month of May, with Newgarden’s known speed and the pedigree of two championships, I would have considered him up there with Dixon as a very likely winner. His average finish record at the Speedway over the last three years of 5.7 is the best of all competitors. Since his win in 2019, Pagenaud has seemed re-invigorated and with an average finish of less than 10 the last three years would normally be considered likely.
For some reason, however, the Penske cars never could find the speed in qualifications. Penske’s record at the Speedway indicates that they can find ways to win. As a result, with some differing race strategies and cars that have race pace, you can never count out a Penske team. Therefore, I have to include Newgarden, Pagenaud, and Power in my Likely group.
It was extremely hard to draw a line between the Likely group and the Possible group this year, so I won’t be surprised if many of you have differing opinions. But after all, this is an exercise in drawing attention to this weekend’s Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
Rinus Veekay from Ed Carpenter Racing was a surprise two weekends in a row. First he won the GMR Race on the Indy road course and then followed that up with a qualifying run on the oval which puts him outside the front row. We know the Ed Carpenter Racing team is fast and if they can provide efficiency in the pits, Rinus could be a surprise winner.
Also from Ed Carpenter Racing is Conor Daly. Conor was near the top of the speed charts in practice before qualifying and even in the post qualifying practice. He indicated that they made some adjustments which just didn’t work out, which is why he is only starting in 19th position. Conor feels extremely confident in his chances this year and he would be a very popular winner. Not only because of his own popularity but also because of his car owner. In any case it should be very interesting to see Conor and Josef Newgarden moving through the field from their 7th row starting positions.
Continuing the Possibility group, we are back to the Chip Ganassi Racing team. With Dixon and Kanaan in the top group, it is not surprising that Alex Palou and Marcus Ericson would be in group 2. Palou, who won the opening race of the season at Barber is starting on the outside of row #2. The fact he took that spot after pancaking the wall near the end of the day on Saturday says a lot about this young man. Chip, like Roger Penske, has always had an eye for talent. The fact that Chip plucked him after just one year in the series, is an indication of the confidence the team has in this young driver.
Finally, the fourth driver in the Chip Ganassi stable is Marcus Ericsson. He rather quietly managed to make the fast nine and with the Ganassi team backing could be a surprise top finisher on race day.
It may seem surprising for me to move last year’s winner and 2017 champion only in the Possible group. The reason is that except for his wins, Takuma Sato’s results at the Speedway have not been all that impressive. In addition we have to take into consideration the likelihood of ANYONE having back-to -back wins at the Speedway. The last time it happened was Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. From there you have to go all the way to 1970 and 1971 when Al Unser, Sr. captured back–to-back wins. A Sato win, while not impossible would be a real surprise.
A more likely probability is Sato’s teammate at Rahal Letterman Racing. That is Graham Rahal. Graham has a decent 13.3 average finish the last three years and seems to have matured into a good, steady driver. So far he seems to be one of those drivers whom bad luck seems to follow. If this is the year when everything falls into place, then Graham could easily find himself in victory lane.
James Hinchcliffe falls into the Possible group not only because he is fast and would be a popular winner, but also because this year he has a full time ride with Andretti Autosports. If the Andretti pedigree and not the curse follow Hinch, then there would be a gigantic roar from the crowd if he crossed the line first.
It was difficult to not put Rookie Scott McLaughlin in the Likely group. Scott has shown speed since he first entered Indy Car and has been quick all month. In fact, he was the highest qualifying of all of the Penske drivers. However, rookies, especially those with very little experience in the series, are not usually able to do everything it takes to finish first after 500 miles. Alexander Rossi was in a similar role and did it in 2016, so it isn’t’ impossible, however I’ll stick with Possible as opposed to Likely despite the Penske backing.
There are two “sleepers” in this field, either one of which could be a big surprise on race day. The first is Juan Pablo Montoya. He already has two Indy wins to his credit separated by 15 years (2000 – 2015) which in itself is amazing. It proves he knows how to be around at the end. This time he is with Arrow McLaren, and their ability to compete for 500 miles with Ganassi, Andretti and Penske comes in question. If you are looking for a dark horse, Juan just might be your choice.
The second sleeper is Sebastien Bourdais, driving for A.J. Foyt racing. Sebastien’s record of CART Championships is amazing so he definitely is familiar with winning. Whether the Foyt team can provide him with the car and the timely pitstops will determine whether or not Likely would have been more appropriate for him.
Next we come to the group which for a number of reasons is very unlikely to be the first one to victory lane. The major obstacle this year is the depth of the field and the extremely strong list of both Likely and Possible teams. The fact that there is so little difference in times and speeds, means that everything has to be perfectly in place for a top finish. With so many teams excelling in so many areas, those top finishes are that much more difficult. So here is the remainder of the field.
We will start with Ed Jones and Pietro Fittipaldi. Ed Jones has driven quickly enough that he might have been included in the Possible category, however, while Dale Coyne’s team has had some success in Indy Car, the ability to perform 8 – 10 pit stops flawlessly and to keep up with the changing track conditions is very difficult for a small team. As a result, I believe a top-ten finish for Ed would be a good result. The situation is similar for Pietro Fitipaldi, the other Dale Coyne entry. He has the extra handicap of being an oval-only driver for the team. There is so much to be said for the establishment of team chemistry and consistency which goes along with not only a full time ride, but a multi-year ride as well. Hopefully Pietro can keep it clean and end up in the top 20.
Felix Rosenquist is with Arrow McLaren this year in a move from Ganassi. Unfortunately, Felix has not seemed to live up to his original potential as emphasized by the fact that he was replaced at Ganassi. While Arrow McLaren definitely seems to be improved and on the upswing, it is hard to imagine that someone who couldn’t make the top ten with Ganassi is going to fare very much better with Arrow McLaren.
I had some trouble making a decision with regard to Jack Harvey. Although he has seemed to pick up his game this year and show more speed, his record of 16th, 21st, and 9th in the last 3 years does not send a message that this is someone who is ready to land on the podium. While he might be a surprise, I believe a 9th place finish similar to last year would be a good outcome for Jack and his Meyer Shank Racing team.
Santonio Ferrucci is making this start with Team Rahal. Santonio showed some promise with Dale Coyne racing, but once released decided to try a full time ride in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Therefore, this ride in the 500 is just a one-off ride for him and the team. It would have been interesting to see how Santonio progressed in Indy Cars given a more extended training period and perhaps a more seasoned crew. One-off rides typically do not end up being very successful in the 500, so he is another that should probably be pleased with a top 15 finish and a car in one piece.
Two cars from the A.J. Foyt stable are, unfortunately, ones destined for 10th to 20th place finishes. J.R. Hildebrand is driving a beautiful #1 patterned after the car A.J. drove to his first 500 victory in 1961. There are many fans who would love to see J.R. enjoy a successful day at the Speedway. Those of us who remember him standing alongside his wrecked car in turn #1 after hitting the wall less than a mile away from victory in 2011, will not soon forget him looking to the sky apparently saying, “Why me?”
Unfortunately he is not likely to be in that position this year.
The other A.J. Foyt entry is Dalton Kellett. He is in his second year with Foyt Racing and managed to squeeze into the field on Saturday and thus avoid the pressure cooker of the last row shootout. This youngster has potential but given that he has only one race, finishing 31st last year and given the team’s recent lack of success, I would think he should be very happy with a top 20 and a car which could be driven onto the hauler.
It seems unusual that I am this far along before getting to the 2020 pole sitter, Marco Andretti. However, Marco is only doing the 500 this year. Given his average finish of 18 the last three years as a full time driver for Andretti Autosports, it is very hard to imagine that this third generation driver can be near the front at the end. A top 10 wouldn’t be out of the question, but much higher is unlikely.
The final driver from the Andretti stable is Stefan Wilson. This is another one-off ride and it is very hard to accomplish much from the 28th starting position, especially without a lot of seat time. I am hopeful that Stefan will have a steady safe day and should be proud to be in the top 20 at the end.
Next comes 29th starter Max Chilton with Carlin Racing. In all honesty, it has been surprising that, given Carlin’s success in Europe, that they have not progressed further up the Indy Car ladder. Max seems to be a steady driver, but for whatever reason the team has not achieved the same level of success to which they had been accustomed. Probably a top 15 is the best that Max can hope to achieve.
Sage Karem is again back with Dreyer Reinbold Racing. Hats off to Dennis Reinbold for his continuing support of the 500. It is local 500 enthusiasts, like him, which help insure that we have a 33 car starting field. Sage’s recent 3 year average finish of 23rd probably indicates that this team would be delighted with a top 15 result.
Finally there is Simona de Silvestro, back for her sixth start at Indy after being away since 2015. She is driving for the mostly female Paretta Autosport Team and the fan enthusiasm for her participation has been amazing. She managed to beat out veteran Charlie Kimball and rookie R.C. Enerson to take a pressure filled 33rd starting position. Many fans, both male and female are going to be watching to see Simona progress from that last row starting spot. I would think that a top 20 for this new team would seem like a podium.
There you have it. This is one fan’s predictions/guesses for a race which is virtually impossible to handicap. Hopefully I have given you some food for thought and fodder for discussion with your fellow race fans.
Mainly we are all wishing for a safe and exciting race on Sunday. Enjoy this year’s version of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing.”
Posted by Steve Wittich on Saturday, April 24th 2021
By Brant James
The image is poignant a decade later.
Dan Wheldon, the former IndyCar champion, having just become a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner, cradling his toddler son, Sebastian, while his wife, Susie, holds newborn Oliver at the yard of bricks. Dan Wheldon, as usual, beaming.
Dan, Susie, Oliver & Sebastian Wheldon pose with the Borg-Warner Trophy the day after Wheldon won his second Indianapolis 500 in 2011. (Photo courtesy of Indianapolis Motor Speedway)
On that May afternoon in Indianapolis, the charismatic Brit, who’d grown from a sometimes brash but always charismatic upstart to the doting family man, had taken advantage of a late mistake by JR Hildebrand to win open-wheel racing’s most significant event in a darkhorse Bryan Herta/Curb Agajanian entry.
Dan Wheldon celebrates his 2011 Indianapolis 500 win (Photo Courtesy of LAT Photo USA /Indianapolis Motor Speedway)
He would race just one more time that season before going to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the season’s final race. That weekend, he would sign a deal to rejoin the Andretti Autosport team that launched his career in North America. The next hard-earned phase for the new Dan Wheldon was about to begin at 33.
Wheldon died after being involved in a multi-car crash on Lap 13 at Las Vegas, leaving pictures instead of memories for boys who were so young.
The Wheldon’s took a new picture on Saturday at the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, at the course where Dan won the first installment in 2005, and in the city where the family still lives all these years later.
There was Sebastian, 12, and Oliver, 10, and Andretti Autosport owner Michael Andretti in front of the plaque commemorating Wheldon’s life and career near Turn 10 as the boys were brought into the fold through a mentorship program.
The goal: to eventually put them back on the Yard of Bricks with their own Borg-Warner Trophy.
The plan: The Wheldon’s will brandish Andretti marks in the Rok Cup USA, Super Karts USA, and the United States Pro Kart Series with JC Karting and extensive support from an Andretti program with a history of developing talent.
Andretti, who saw Wheldon claim the first nine of his 16 career wins, and the 2005 title and Indianapolis 500 with his team before leaving for Ganassi Racing in 2006, said it was incomprehensible ten years had passed, even with the boys – themselves national-level winners – standing there as proof.
“It seems like it was just yesterday,” said the team owner.
Sebastian began racing at age 5, two years before Oliver finally asked to try. Sebastian’s leading of the field to green in media/celebrity races preceding the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg over the years had long been a hint at where this could be going.
Susie Wheldon has sacrificed to make this come true for her boys. She’s not remarried, so the job was her’s alone despite valuable help from the IndyCar community, including Scott Dixon, Andretti, and Chip Ganassi Racing managing director Mike Hull, who also lives in St. Petersburg. She’s gone from a mother indulging a child in a passion to learning another side of the game that her previous roles as a media relations rep and wife of a driver couldn’t illuminate.
She closed the niche clothing boutique she opened in St. Petersburg in 2017 because her sons’ travel, racing, and online school became too time-consuming.
“That girl has really given up her life for her kids,” Andretti said. “I love what she’s doing.”
Once the boys advanced to national-series racing with success – they’re back to New Castle, Ind., on Wednesday to prep for another event – the mother conferred with her husband’s former manager, Adrian Sussman, to formulate a strategy to bring on more help. She and Andretti began working on the eventual deal eight months ago. Initial plans will have the boys remain in Florida to further their kart careers as the minimum age to enter the Road to Indy Series is 14.
Susie Wheldon wish son Sebastian good luck Photo Courtesy of INDYCAR – James Black)
Drivers aren’t often comfortable reconciling their mortality against the dangerous job they chose and the families that can only be supportive. But a grieving IndyCar community enveloped Susie Wheldon in the years after her husband’s death, and Sebastian and Oliver found mentors and unofficial uncles throughout the paddock.
Dan Wheldon often joked about how quickly he would get Sebastian into a go-kart. He could only stand it for 18 months, taking laps with his boy at Andersen RacePark South of St. Petersburg.
Sebastian’s first ride of his own came at age 4½ when Top Kart gave him one as a gift. His first ride alone was at the same track where his father had shown him the thrill of it all.
Through this journey, Susie Wheldon said she remains realistic. “I’m not naive enough to think that just because they’re Dan Wheldon’s kids, they’re going to be great race car drivers,” she said.
Sebastian bears a strong resemblance to his mother; Oliver looks more like his father. Both already exhibit the type of poise that allows children to undertake a media session at a professional auto race with hardly a bobble. The polish required to charm sponsors and woo media is already developing after just a few years slogging around the high-level kart circuits in the Southeast and Midwest.
The more interesting stuff – the budding Wheldon joy of conversation – bubbles out when they recall racing each other.
“Not good,” Oliver said of his experience battling big brother. “There was one race in Orlando when I was winning, and he tried to pass me and put me in the grass, and I didn’t win the championship because of that.” Sebastian quickly interjected, “But the next race, we helped each other.”
Sebastian’s only brief stumble came when enunciating the source of the talent. “I think it all comes from our blood ……. and it helps us be better drivers,” he said.
And their favorite memory from watching a video of their father’s races?
“I think it was in the Indy 500; I think it was 2005 when he won it,” Oliver said. And Sebastian? “My favorite was when he won the one in 2011. He never gave up, and he won.”
Susie Wheldon undoubtedly understands that bad things can happen to loved ones in race cars. But still, they push on.
“Obviously, that thought is there,” she said. “But it’s not something I dwell on or think about a lot. Everything has kind of happened naturally, and I’ve just kind of kept going with it. I can’t deny them that.
“I would not want them to come to me when they’re 16 or 17 and say, ‘Mom, I want to have a go,’ and it’s too late.
“If they came to me in two, three, five years and said ‘This is not what we want to do,’ OK, we can walk away knowing this is something we tried.”
As a member of a multi-generation racing family, Andretti appreciates the quest. His 7-year-old son Rio, as in “Mario,” is currently racing karts, too. Susie Wheldon values “the passing down of the baton that runs deep in racing.” And in the Wheldon boys.
“He was a good driver,” Sebastian said of his father. “And I want to be a little bit better than him.”
Today, as his mother said, “We found the path.”
Susie, Sebastian, and Oliver Wheldon with Michael Andretti in front of the Dan Wheldon memorial in St. Petersburg, Fla. (Photo Courtesy of INDYCAR – Chris Owens)