Editor’s Note: An annual tradition for TSO is back. We welcome back our friend and long-time subscriber Butch Welsch (his book Indy 500 Memories is linked here) for one of our favorite features of the year, his annual driver-by-driver preview and three groups of predictions. This year, Butch is set to attend his 78th straight Indianapolis 500. Not bad considering this year’s the 109th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge!
By Butch Welsch
Every year it seems to get more difficult to handicap the Indy 500 field. Probably because the teams seem to be much closer in speeds and execution. Maybe it’s because I’m older. But this year’s field and lineup are a challenge. Everyone I believe would agree that the final qualifying day was a huge surprise.
For those who may not have seen this article before, I split the field into three groups. The first group (Group 1) is the group which most likely will include the winner, almost always. Group 2 typically consists of those drivers and teams which have some speed and have a good chance to be in the top ten, but for whatever reasons can’t put it all together to beat those in Group 1. Group 3 is the rest of the field. Although most are not far from the top guys in speed, this race requires perfect execution throughout the entire 500 miles, including 5-7 pit stops. I will be using starting order for each of the groups, starting with Group 1.
NEWS FLASH: As I am writing this on Monday morning, I just got word that the Speedway has moved Will Power, No. 12 and Josef Newgarden No. 2 to the back of the field. That doesn’t make this prediction job any easier.
Group 1:
Takuma Sato No. 75: Takuma Sato is one of the most underrated drivers at the Speedway. He has driven at the Speedway for six different teams (KV Racing Technology, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, A.J. Foyt Enterprises, Andretti Autosport, Dale Coyne Racing, Chip Ganassi Racing), and this is his third stint with RLL (2012, 2018-2021, 2024-present). Besides his two wins, which alone put him in good company, he has a third and a seventh to his credit. He won with RLL in 2020, out racing the incomparable Scott Dixon. He is back with RLL again and starts on the front row. If the team can perform in the pits and make the right tactical decisions, Taku could join the small group of three-time winners.
Pato O’Ward No. 5: Pato is not only one of the most popular – if not the most popular driver in the series – he is one of the fastest. He has finished second in two of the last three years. You know that Josef Newgarden passing him on the outside in Turn 3 on the last lap last year has to still keep him awake at nights. His Arrow McLaren team has stepped up their game and they are anxious to challenge Penske and Ganassi for Indy superiority. Given this year’s circumstances, this might be his great chance. Wouldn’t be a surprise and would be extremely popular.
Scott Dixon No. 9: It has surprisingly been 17 years since Scott won the Indy 500 in 2008. For the driver who is considered the best of this era, that is not only a surprise but I’m sure is difficult for Scott to explain. His record at the Speedway is excellent. In 22 previous starts he has 14 top-tens. With two of his main challengers in the rear, I’m sure that Scott is looking at this as his best chance in years. With his years of experience and his reputation as being the best at saving fuel, this could easily be a Scott Dixon year. Especially if the cautions dictate it being a fuel savings race.
Felix Rosenqvist No. 60: Felix is one of those quiet guys you don’t hear much about, but he seems to always be near the front – despite not making it to victory lane. He has four top-tens in the series’ five races this year. He is driving for Meyer Shank Racing with Curb Agajanian, which is another team attempting to be on the level of the Penskes and Ganassis. Meyer Shank won in 2021 with Helio Castroneves, so they have shown the ability to get it done in the pits. He only has one IndyCar victory, and at Indy he only has one top ten. However, he and his Meyer Shank team seem to have improved their game and they could surprise this year.
Alex Palou No. 10: It is hard to not use superlatives when talking about Alex Palou. Three NTT INDYCAR Series championships in the last four years in an era that is one of the most competitive. He has won four of the first five races on the schedule this year. With all of these accomplishments, it is hard to believe he has never won on an oval. I certainly don’t think that is any reflection of his ability. With the momentum he is carrying into the 500 it is easy say that he has the best chance of collecting the Borg-Warner Trophy. I’ll merely say that if I only had one pick from the 33, it would be Palou.
David Malukas No. 4: This young man from Chicago probably surprised a few by making the Fast 12 in qualifying. In 2023, he had six top-ten finishes with Dale Coyne. Before the 2024 season he was a hot property signed by Arrow Mclaren. Unfortunately a non-racing accident cost him that ride and most of the 2024 season except for the second half of the season with Meyer Shank. He now has a solid ride with A.J. Foyt Racing which has a technical alliance with Team Penske. It is rumored that he has been lent by Penske to Foyt to prepare for when Will Power’s seat becomes available. He would be considered a darkhorse, but we all know that Penske and Foyt know their way around the Speedway.
Christian Lundgaard No. 7: This young driver hails from Denmark. He has proven he is fast. In 2023 with RLL he had one win and two poles, and finished eighth in points. His record at the Speedway has not been illustrious; 18th, 19th and 13th. Those were all with RLL. He is now with Arrow McLaren and is battling to supplant Pato O’Ward as their top dog. He already has three podiums in five races and is third in Series points. As I indicated with Pato, Arrow McLaren is very anxious to be in the same rarified air as Penske and Ganassi. For me, a win by Christian would not be that surprising.
Marcus Ericsson No. 28: Marcus has shown speed and race savvy at the Speedway. He has a win in 2022 and a second behind Newgarden in 2023. Those were with Chip Ganassi Racing. He is now in his second year with Andretti Global. Last year he was taken out by another driver’s error in the first turn of the first lap. We don’t really know what he is capable of in the 500 with Andretti. He qualified in the top 12 and starts in ninth. If the Andretti team can perform for him, he might add his face again to the trophy.
Scott McLaughlin No. 3: Scott sat on the pole last year, but an unfortunate accident in practice on Sunday prevented him from having a qualifying attempt. Scott has been fast and competitive everywhere he has run with a sixth last year his best result. We can’t overlook the fact that he is driving for Penske and is starting in 10th which makes him the most likely of the Penske drivers to drink the milk. It wouldn’t make sense to have a Group 1 without a Penske car. Scott is carrying the torch for the Captain this year.
Conor Daly No. 76: For years Conor has always been fast at the Speedway. He and Ed Carpenter are considered the “hometown” favorites by the crowd. Conor has led laps in the 500, including the most laps in 2021, and has four top-tens, including three straight of sixth, eighth and 10th. I doubt there are many drivers in the field who have as much desire to win the 500 as Conor. He is in a new, full-time ride with Juncos-Hollinger. Results haven’t fully hit yet for him in 2025, but ovals are Conor’s strongsuit, this is the first oval of the year, and he’s been very excited about his car’s race-pace potential. The crowd would absolutely erupt if Conor would cross the yard of bricks first. Stranger things have happened!
Kyle Larson No. 17: This is a one-off IndyCar ride and Kyle has the distraction of attempting to do the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 in the same day. He is also starting back in 19th position. Despite his lack of experience at the Speedway, anyone who follows all types of racing will tell you that right now Kyle Larson is the number one race driver in the country. He can and does run and win in everything. He also is in an Arrow McLaren prepared car. He has a back-up driver lined up in Charlotte if he has to stay in Indy to receive the Borg Warner Trophy.
Note: As I complete group 1, I want to mention that I have not taken the engine manufacturer into consideration much in my deliberations. This year, based on all the practices and qualifying there is very little noticeable difference between the Hondas and Chevys. I believe that race strategy and not making mistakes in the pits or on the track are much more important factors in determining this year’s winner.
Group 2:
Robert Shwartzman No. 83: I may be considered out of my mind for putting the polesitter in Group 2. However, we can’t forget the realities. His winning the pole was sensational. The last rookie to qualify on the pole was Teo Fabi in 1983 (Tony Stewart started on the pole in 1996 following Scott Brayton’s fatal accident in practice). It is extremely unusual for a rookie to win the Indy 500. The last was Alexander Rossi in 2016 and prior to that, Juan Montoya and Helio Castroneves went back-to-back in 2000 and 2001. Robert has no oval experience and his Prema team is brand new to IndyCar. I think there are too many odds against him beating those in Group 1.
Alexander Rossi No. 20: Alexander Rossi has an excellent record at the Speedway over the nine years he has been running in IndyCar. He has seven top 10 finishes in his nine years at the Speedway including his win in 2016. Although he finished fourth last year, with two laps to go he appeared very close to winning his second 500. Despite 11 top-tens in 2024, he and Arrow McLaren went their separate ways. Fortunately, he found a ride with Ed Carpenter Racing. ECR has traditionally been fast in qualifying but faded in the race. From 12th on the grid and given his race history, perhaps Rossi could flip the script and along with a flawless team performance, return to victory lane.
Ed Carpenter No. 33: It is hard to believe that this will be Ed Carpenter’s 22nd Indy 500. Ed has had more success qualifying at the Speedway than finishing, although he does have six top tens and four 11th place finishes. He is another who would be a very popular winner as he is a genuinely nice person who is liked by the crowd. His team hasn’t quite achieved the results level of some of the top teams. He’s a past runner-up (2018) and in 2025, I feel a top ten would be a good day for Ed.
Santino Ferrucci No. 14: Santino has been with four different teams (Dale Coyne Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, A.J. Foyt Racing) and in his first six starts at the 500, he has six top ten finishes. There is no one driving right now with that kind of top ten percentage. He is with A.J. Foyt’s team for the third year. With the Foyt connection with Penske, perhaps Santino can turn a top ten into a victory. It isn’t out of the question but it will depend upon pit stop performance and execution. No one will question Santino’s hustle on the track. He is fun to watch on re-starts, but another top ten will be a good day for him.
A word about starting positions: I’m providing this information because each of the next five would typically be considered Group 1, prime candidates to win. Since racing resumed after WWII, the farthest back a winner has come was Johnny Rutherford who started in 25th position in 1974. In more recent years, the starters from the farthest back are Ryan Hunter-Reay, 19th in 2014 and Josef Newgarden, 17th in 2023. This will explain why these are in Group 2.
Helio Castroneves No. 06: Helio is a guy you have to like. No matter what happens he has a smile on his face. Obviously he knows how to win at the Speedway with four winner’s rings to his credit. His Meyer Shank team, of which he is now part owner, has upped their game and are trying to reach the status of top teams. Unfortunately, there is a reason only four drivers are four-time winners in the 108 Indy 500s, and no five-time winners. It would be a tremendous story to see Helio climb the fence again – but don’t bet your shirt on it.
Kyle Kirkwood No. 27: Kyle came into IndyCar in 2022 with a tremendous record behind him. He won championships, in reverse order: Indy Lights; Indy Pro 2000; USF2000; F3 America; and Formula 4 United States. Driving for Andretti, he had 13 top tens in last year’s 17-race season. This year he has the only victory besides Palou and four top tens and an 11th in the five races. I really wrestled with this one. I like Kyle and know he would make a great winner. I’m concerned about his 25th starting spot. Hopefully Kyle will prove I should have put him in Group 1.
Colton Herta No. 26: Colton is ripe and ready to win the Indy 500. He finished second in NTT INDYCAR Series Points last year with two victories and 13 top tens. He drives for one of the top teams in Andretti Global. I put Colton in a similar position as Kyle Kirkwood. If he were starting in the top three or four rows he would have an excellent chance of winning. He crashed in practice on the first day of qualifying, and somehow the team managed to get a car together for him to qualify in about four hours. Unfortunately, that left him in the 27th starting position. I just feel it is too much to expect a victory from 27th when there is the quality of teams and drivers so much closer to the front.
Josef Newgarden No. 2 (Starting 32nd) / Will Power No. 12 (Starting 33rd): I am going to take these two together because they are both previous winners and both drive for Team Penske. Normally they would both be considered favorites to win the 500. Josef Newgarden I’m sure is devastated to be moved to the rear. He was all charged up to become the first driver to win three in a row at the Speedway. Such great names as Wilbur Shaw, Mauri Rose, Bill Vukovich and even Helio Castroneves drove with a chance to win their third in a row but it didn’t happen. Is the dream gone for Josef? Will Power has the extra incentive in that he is in a contract year with Team Penske, with rumors flying about his departure. The fact that they are starting in the last row certainly reduces their chances. Not only do they have a lot of cars to pass but they are dealing with drivers with different levels of experience than they are used to riding tire to tire with. It should be exciting to watch them attempt to make their way to the front. Maybe one of them will break the streak of no winners from positions 29-33.
Group 3
Kyffin Simpson No. 8: Kyffin has been successful in sports cars – the Asian Le Mans Series and the European Le Mans Series. He came to this country and finished ninth and 10th in the Indy NXT Series. However he was able to get a cherished ride with Chip Ganassi Racing and that hopefully will help take him to success. So far in 23 races with Ganassi his best finish is a 10th this year at Long Beach, and he’s showing improvement in his second year. Driving for Ganassi is a real plus, but I think a top ten finish in Indy would be a good day for Kyffin.
Devlin DeFrancesco No. 30: Devlin is starting in the 16th position, and his finishes in 2022 and 2023 were in the mid-pack (20th and 13th). He missed last year’s race, but he has a full season ride this year with RLL. The team has struggled at times this season, so it is hard to say how well they will have the car balanced for Devlin. He tends to finish worse than he qualifies, and since he is starting in mid-pack I would say that anything between 10th and 15th would be a good day for the Canadian if he can reverse that trend.
Sting Ray Robb No. 77: Sting Ray starts alongside Devlin in 17th. These positions are two which could be considered in the “danger zone.” They have to be aware of the guys about their speed around them and then they have to be ready for any of the five real chargers that are starting behind them. This is Sting Ray’s third 500, with a 31st and 16th in his other two races. He has occasionally shown some speed and he is driving for Juncos Hollinger this year. That team is looking to raise its game in hopes of being spoken in the same sentence with Penske and Ganassi. They have a ways to go and with Sting Ray’s starting spot I would think he should be happy with a 15th or better.
Christian Rasmussen No. 21: Christian completes the potential “mid-pack, Row 6 danger zone” in 18th. In 2024 he started 24th and finished 12th which was a very nice improvement. He has had a successful move up the IndyCar ladder. He won the USF 2000 Championship in 2020; the USF Pro 2000 Championship in 2021 and the Indy NXT Championship in 2023. He is with Ed Carpenter for his second year, his first full year, and his results have been mixed. He has spun twice this year in practice, managing to save the first one but doing both front and rear damage on the Monday after qualifying. He will likely finish between 10th and 20th.
Louis Foster No. 45: Better pronounced as “Louie,” Louis is a rookie and he, too, had success in the IndyCar ladder system through the USF Pro Championships and then into Indy NXT. He won the USF Pro 2000 Championship in 2022 and then last year ran away with the Indy NXT Championship. His scholarship from there helped him get a full season ride with RLL. He has averaged 21st in his first five races of this his rookie season. Considering that RLL has struggled at times this year and the fact that he is a rookie, I would think finishing the race with the car intact would be considered a good afternoon’s work.
Callum Ilott No. 90: This is Callum’s fourth 500 and he is with his third team. He drives for the new Prema team which put his teammate Robert Schwartzman on the pole. Callum’s results in IndyCar generally haven’t matched the talent at his disposal, although he’s overachieved with two finishes just outside the top ten at the 500. It’s a new team with a fairly young, but still experienced, driver so he may be delighted to end up in the 10th to 20th range range.
Nolan Siegel No. 6: Nolan is a rookie in the field at the Speedway after failing to qualify last year, while polesitter Robert Shwartzman and Louis Foster were the two full-season rookies who made the race. He has driven many different types of cars the last couple of years, and his resume includes an LMP2 class win at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, driving for the United Autosports team co-owned by McLaren’s Zak Brown. He has been in the NTT INDYCAR Series with Arrow McLaren for almost a year now, with an average finish of 16th in 15 races. It definitely seems that this young man has potential and he is certainly with a team on the rise. Past performance tells me he is another in the 10th to 20th spots.
Ryan Hunter-Reay No. 23: It is hard to put this extremely nice guy and former winner in my number 3 class. However, I am trying to be realistic about actual chances to win the 500. Ryan won back in 2014 which, if nothing else means he is 11 years older. This is also a “one-off” ride for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing with Cusick Motorsports. Dennis Reinbold in particular has been a wonderful supporter of the Indy 500 for many years, and the Dreyer history at the Speedway dates to the 1920s. DRR has given opportunities to drivers who don’t have full-time rides. The series is so competitive these days, that it is very difficult for a “one-off” ride to be successful, although DRR has a habit of being near the top ten. It would be thrilling to see a hometown owner and race supporter win the race. However, the realities are that even with a driver like Hunter-Reay, a top ten finish would be a good day.
Jack Harvey No. 24: Surprisingly, Jack will be competing in his eighth Indy 500 this year, and he’s raced with nearly half the paddock in those eight (Andretti with Shank, Meyer Shank Racing with either Schmidt Peterson or Andretti, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing; he didn’t attempt last year but coached the Dale Coyne Racing team). His results over his seven previous races have been an average finish of 20th and a best finish of ninth in 2020. He is a teammate of Ryan Hunter-Reay with DRR-Cusick. For the same reasons Hunter-Reay’s job will be difficult on Sunday so will Jack Harvey’s. The one-off ride and 26th starting position coupled with his previous record makes me think that Jack, who spends most of his year as a FOX Sports pit reporter, may be delighted with a top 15 finish.
Graham Rahal No. 15: My next two are famous names and sons of former winners. Graham Rahal had a very long day on Saturday as he was in the 30th position watching guys go out and try to beat him, knowing if they did, he might not have time to respond and would be in the dreaded bottom four. He did survive and will start 28th. Graham’s team has been up and down this season with his performance in the Indy Grand Prix their best showing in years. For whatever reasons, it doesn’t seem like this team has it all together. Based on their past performances and this starting spot Graham should be thrilled with a top ten finish.
Marco Andretti No. 98: Marco worked extremely hard, making several runs in an attempt to displace Graham Rahal and move into the top 30. Unfortunately none of those runs was successful. However, on Sunday, he was the fastest of the four runners and could sit back and watch the two Dale Coyne Racing cars fight it out. Despite being part of the relatively strong Andretti Global team, Marco’s recent finishes have been mid-pack at best. The fact that he only runs this one IndyCar race each year is an example of how difficult it is to make a “one-off” ride work. The series is too difficult. I feel 15th or better from 29th on the grid would be a good day for Marco.
Marcus Armstrong No. 66: Marcus is in his third year of Indy Car, this year with Meyer Shank after two years with Ganassi. His record last year shows nine top tens out of 18 races: a very good performance. This year he has had two top tens in the first five events. An unfortunate very nasty accident Saturday morning before qualifying sent the team in a fast repair mode. Marcus was able to qualify and join the four on Sunday. He was second fastest behind Marco and he too watched the Dale Coyne guys battle it out. I think Marcus can eventually be a front runner, but as I have indicated a 30th starting position is hard to overcome.
Rinus Veekay No. 18: Rinus spent Sunday afternoon going back and forth with his teammate Jacob Abel to determine which would be the final qualifier in the field. In the end Rinus won out, but due to his slow speed was not overly excited. Rinus drove his first five years in IndyCar with Ed Carpenter Racing with moderate success, including the team’s most recent win (IMS road course in May 2021). Last year he had seven top tens out of 17 starts. This year with Dale Coyne he has three top tens in five races – certainly a good start. Rinus seems to be pushing the Coyne team to help him be better. Unfortunately, a last row start is a lot to overcome, especially for a team not known for its spectacular pit work. Rinus might get up to the top ten, but around 15th is more likely.
There you have it. One man’s opinion of what might happen on Race Day Sunday. In any case it is shaping up to be a very interesting race, with five otherwise potential winners starting in the last four rows. I’m sure that FOX is going to go all out to make this, their first 500, a spectacular event. Regardless of who wins, we just pray for a safe race. Enjoy.